Mapping Emerging Scarcity

What investors take for granted as investment ‘quality’ reflects both long accepted wisdom about where scarcity exists, such as distribution moats, brand, patents, and an unstated assumption that these points of scarcity remain unchanged. Instead, it seems likely that extreme changes in marginal costs wrought by technology are forcing a reconfiguration of existing business models.

This essay is an attempt to tie those ideas together to identify where the next great businesses might emerge. Amidst a changing investment environment which lacks historical analogues the challenge for investors is identifying profit pools prospectively.

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